# China Passenger Car Retail Forecast at 1\.60 Million Units for October, New Energy at 1\.07 Million

The China Passenger Car Association projects October retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles at about 1\.60 million units, down 1\.1% from September and 28\.9% from a year earlier, with new energy retail at roughly 1\.07 million units and a penetration rate of about 66\.9%\.

By China EV Signal
Published: 2026-10-23T14:21:02.775Z
Updated: 2026-10-23T14:21:02.777Z
Canonical article: https://chinaevsignal.com/news/china-passenger-car-retail-october-forecast-new-energy

## Key takeaways

- The association expects October narrow passenger vehicle retail at about 1\.60 million units, down 1\.1% month on month and 28\.9% year on year\.
- New energy retail is projected at about 1\.07 million units in October, implying a penetration rate of about 66\.9%\.
- September narrow passenger vehicle retail was 1\.618 million units, down 28\.0% year on year but up 5\.0% from August, with new energy penetration reaching a record 67\.0%\.

## September retail falls sharply year on year

Narrow passenger vehicle retail reached 1\.618 million units in September, down 28\.0% from a year earlier and up 5\.0% from August, according to the China Passenger Car Association\.

Fuel vehicle terminal retail totaled 534,000 units in September, a year-on-year decline of more than 40%, which the association attributed to persistently high oil prices\. New energy retail was 1\.084 million units, down 16\.7% year on year, while its penetration rate rose to a record 67\.0%\.

## October forecast points to a slower month

The association expects the October narrow passenger vehicle retail market at about 1\.60 million units, down 1\.1% from September and 28\.9% from October 2025\.

New energy retail is projected at about 1\.07 million units for October, with a penetration rate of about 66\.9%, supported by orders placed earlier\.

## Weekly retail pace through October

Average daily retail was 32,000 units in the first week of October and rose to about 58,000 units in the second week, the association reported\. It eased to about 47,000 units in the third week, is put at about 49,000 units in the fourth week and is expected at 79,000 units in the fifth week, when manufacturers push month-end volume and build momentum for the fourth quarter\.

## Cautious outlook and broader retail trends

Most leading manufacturers surveyed in early October take a cautious view of sales pacing in the fourth quarter, and inventory strategies across manufacturers are becoming more conservative in October, according to the association\. Some limited-time offers are expiring, slowing delivery, while several all-new models are still due to launch before the year's end, with longer lead times from debut to delivery\.

In the first nine months of 2026, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1\.1% year on year, while automotive retail sales fell 14\.9%, according to National Bureau of Statistics data cited in the association's report\. In September alone, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1\.1% year on year, while automotive retail sales fell 21\.2%\.

## Original publisher

乘联分会. Published: 2026-10-23T10:34:30.000Z