# Lithium carbonate futures fall below 100,000 yuan/tonne as 2027 surplus forecasts emerge

On October 19, the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract hit an intraday low of 94,860 yuan/tonne, a new low for the year, before closing at 99,382 yuan/tonne, up 1\.49% from the previous trading day\. The contract closed at 99,755 yuan/tonne on October 20, as CITIC Securities forecast a possible global lithium surplus of about 38,000 tonnes LCE in 2027\.

By China EV Signal
Published: 2026-10-20T14:25:08.160Z
Updated: 2026-10-20T14:25:08.162Z
Canonical article: https://chinaevsignal.com/news/lithium-carbonate-futures-fall-2027-surplus-forecasts

## Key takeaways

- The GFEX lithium carbonate main contract fell to an intraday low of 94,860 yuan/tonne on October 19, a new low for the year, and closed at 99,382 yuan/tonne, up 1\.49% from the previous trading day\.
- From the mid-May high of 209,800 yuan/tonne, lithium carbonate futures fell by more than 50% within five months\.
- CITIC Securities estimates that the global lithium market could return to a surplus of about 38,000 tonnes LCE in 2027, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a shift from a 404,000-tonne supply deficit in 2026 to a 444,000-tonne surplus in 2028\.

## Futures hit new low for the year

On October 19, the GFEX lithium carbonate main contract fell to an intraday low of 94,860 yuan/tonne, a new low for the year, before closing at 99,382 yuan/tonne, up 1\.49% from the previous trading day\. The contract closed at 99,755 yuan/tonne on October 20\.

From the mid-May high of 209,800 yuan/tonne, lithium carbonate futures fell by more than 50% within five months\. On October 19, the battery-grade lithium carbonate morning midpoint price was 102,750 yuan/tonne, and the afternoon spot index was 101,220 yuan/tonne\.

## Supply additions weigh on the market

On October 8, the environmental assessment for the Jianxiawo lithium mine of Yichun Times, a CATL company, re-entered the proposed acceptance publicity stage\. At full production, Jianxiawo, described as the world's largest single lithium mica mine, corresponds to a supply capacity of about 100,000 tonnes LCE per year\.

Jiangte Motor announced that the safety facility design for the 3-million-tonne-per-year mining project at its Qiankeng lithium mine passed review, corresponding to a theoretical annual output of about 15,000 tonnes LCE\.

## Inventories and demand trends

Under SMM statistics, social inventory of lithium carbonate stood at 139,500 tonnes as of October 8, and destocking continued around the National Day holiday\. In early September, SMM adjusted its inventory statistical methodology, adding about 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes at once and bringing social inventory under the new methodology to 169,300 tonnes\.

Passenger car association data showed September new energy vehicle sales of 1,577,500 units, up 16\.8% year on year\. China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance data showed September power battery installations of 87\.2 GWh, up 14\.7% year on year\. New energy vehicles accounted for more than 60% of new vehicle sales\.

## 2027 outlook and policy changes

CITIC Securities estimates that the global lithium market could return to a surplus of about 38,000 tonnes LCE in 2027\. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the global lithium market will shift from a supply deficit of 404,000 tonnes in 2026 to a supply surplus of 444,000 tonnes in 2028\.

Some institutions estimate the marginal full cost of lithium carbonate for 2027 at about 85,000 to 90,000 yuan/tonne\. Institutions also expect the growth rate of energy storage production scheduling to fall from above 60% to within 40% in 2027\.

The export tax rebate rate for battery products was cut from 9% to 6% in April and will be fully cancelled from January 1, 2027\.

Guotai Junan Futures noted that actual supply and demand may still show a gap in October, but if consumption weakens after November, the market could return to inventory building as early as December\.

## Original publisher

高工锂电. Published: 2026-10-20T11:05:11.000Z