September retail falls sharply year on year
Narrow passenger vehicle retail reached 1.618 million units in September, down 28.0% from a year earlier and up 5.0% from August, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
Fuel vehicle terminal retail totaled 534,000 units in September, a year-on-year decline of more than 40%, which the association attributed to persistently high oil prices. New energy retail was 1.084 million units, down 16.7% year on year, while its penetration rate rose to a record 67.0%.
October forecast points to a slower month
The association expects the October narrow passenger vehicle retail market at about 1.60 million units, down 1.1% from September and 28.9% from October 2025.
New energy retail is projected at about 1.07 million units for October, with a penetration rate of about 66.9%, supported by orders placed earlier.
Weekly retail pace through October
Average daily retail was 32,000 units in the first week of October and rose to about 58,000 units in the second week, the association reported. It eased to about 47,000 units in the third week, is put at about 49,000 units in the fourth week and is expected at 79,000 units in the fifth week, when manufacturers push month-end volume and build momentum for the fourth quarter.
Cautious outlook and broader retail trends
Most leading manufacturers surveyed in early October take a cautious view of sales pacing in the fourth quarter, and inventory strategies across manufacturers are becoming more conservative in October, according to the association. Some limited-time offers are expiring, slowing delivery, while several all-new models are still due to launch before the year's end, with longer lead times from debut to delivery.